An Approach to Long-Range Forecasting.

Abstract

This note describes a method for making long-range (10-20 years) forecasts of Soviet strategic weapon developments. As the end product of a heuristic reasoning process, the methodology has a requirements orientation, based on clues from Soviet military writing, Soviet technology, and Soviet acquisition practices. Progressing through a sequence of four central inquiries, the methodology examines Soviet mission priorities, weapon deficiencies, and weapon options to forecast Soviet weapon choices. These four inquiries are supported by five background inquiries into Soviet military concepts, Soviet perceptions of threat, current Soviet weapon capabilities, Soviet advanced weapon technology, and available Soviet resources. After describing the overall methodology, this note discusses each of the nine inquiries and presents the author's viewpoint on their boundaries and emphasis.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1981
Accession Number
ADA111264

Entities

People

  • J. E. Murray

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Acquisition
  • Ballistic Missile Submarines
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Defense Systems
  • Directed Energy Weapons
  • Fleet Ballistic Missiles
  • Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
  • Naval Warfare
  • Procurement
  • Short Range Ballistic Missiles
  • Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Test Facilities
  • United States
  • Warfare
  • Weapons Effects

Fields of Study

  • Political science

Readers

  • Computer Vision.
  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Strategic Security Studies