An Investigation of Time Series Growth Curves as a Predictor of Diminishing Manufacturing Sources of Electronic Components.
Abstract
Diminishing manufacturing sources (DMS) is a situation that occurs when the last manufacturing source discontinues or intends to discontinue production of items required to logistically support weapon systems throughout the Department of Defense (DOD). A practical method of forecasting DMS would enable DOD to anticipate and plan advance measures. The research postulated that a technology's life cycle curve could be re-expressed as a specialized time series growth curve known as the S-curve. Unit sales and dollar volume of sales were the two types of annual aggregate commercial sales data used to examine the growth curves of three families of obsolete electronic components. The component types were germanium transistors, germanium diodes/rectifiers, and receiving tubes. The research hypothesized that a standard nonlinear growth curve model could be fitted to each set of observed data using least squares nonlinear regression. The Pearl function appeared to offer the best mathematical explanation of the underlying economic nature of each time series growth curve in addition to providing the best overall data fit. Growth curve analysis indicated that DMS occurred at or near the saturation level of each curve; however, DMS did not occur at the same point on each curve.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA111375
Entities
People
- Michael E. Brooks
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology