Reconciling Continuous Probability Assessments.
Abstract
Several subjects each provide a mean and a standard deviation for a single uncertain quantity, expressing thereby their own opinions of the value of the quantity. In the paper we discuss the problem of incorporating all these judgments into a single probability distribution for the quantity. Under simple, normal assumptions the resulting procedure is least squares. Disadvantages of this are alleviated by using t-, instead of normal, distributions. Further refinements incorporate extra information provided by the standard deviations. These lead to nonnormal distributions and improvements to least squares. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA112169
Entities
People
- D. V. Lindley