Simulating a Markov Chain with a Superefficient Sampling Method.

Abstract

This paper describes an algorithm and a FORTRAN subprogram, CHAIN, for simulating the behavior of an (n+1) state Markov chain using a variance reducing technique called rotation sampling. The simulation of k microreplications is carried out in parallel at a mean cost < or = O(1n k) and with variances of sample quantities of interest < or = O((1n k squared)/k squared). The program allows for independent macroreplications, each of k microreplications, in order to faciliate estimation of the variances of sample quantities of interest. The paper describes theoretical results that underlie the algorithm and program in Section 1 and presents applications of interest for first passage time and steady-state distributions in Section 2. Section 3 describes the algorithm and CHAIN and an example in Section 4 illustrates how CHAIN works in practice. Section 5 describes the options available for restarting the simulation. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADA115451

Entities

People

  • George S. Fishman

Organizations

  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Absorption
  • Accuracy
  • Algorithms
  • Computations
  • Computers
  • Covariance
  • Estimators
  • Markov Chains
  • Markov Processes
  • North Carolina
  • Numerical Analysis
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Random Number Generators
  • Random Variables
  • Simulations
  • Steady State

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Computer Science.
  • Statistical inference.