Soviet Demographic Trends and the Ethnic Composition of Draft Age Males, 1980-1995,
Abstract
The USSR is embarking on the decade of the 1980s while suffering from severe economic difficulties and growing labor imbalances and shortages which are exacerbated by the demographic shifts noted above. These shifts are reflected in the ethnic composition of the cohorts of young males available to the economy and to the armed forces. The ongoing demographic trends must be of concern to the Kremlin because of long-standing nationality problems, ethnic antagonisms, and the educational and linguistic handicaps characteristic of the USSR's minority peoples. This Note reviews population trends since 1959 and makes projections to 1995, with particular attention to the changing ethnic composition of the 18-year-old male cohort subject to conscription. The Kremlin, in theory at least, has several options it might pursue to cope with its labor and military manpower problems. Among these options are measures for economic reform and increased productivity, lengthening the term of military service, reduction of the size of the armed forces, changes in ethnic policies in the military, and a strategy of 'muddling through.' By such means some modest progress may gradually be achieved at a cost, but for the most part the USSR's military manpower problems may remain unsolved for the next decade or so.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA116673
Entities
People
- Edmund Brunner Jr
Organizations
- RAND Corporation