Future Computing,
Abstract
This article is typical of thousands that have appeared in the technical and popular press on the subject of computer technology in the last couple of years. It shows an almost exponential growth in the demand for computer programmers. Others like it cite statistics such as five computers per programmer within the next 10 years. This kind of figure is virtuallly meaningless. When microprocessors are being installed in small consumer-oriented systems like electric razors, stoves, and blenders, it doesn't make a lot of sense to talk about the number of programmers per computer. Such figures can be likened to the extrapolation of TV sales figures in the late 50s and 60s, which, if continued, would leave us up to our knees in television sets. The real question is seen in Slide 2. This is the central problem facing the computer industry today, and Moore had good reason to emphasize the point. In the intervening year or two, a number of developments have intervened that may have altered his perspective, but the magnitude of the adjustment that the computer industry must make, and the new economics introduced by VLSI, are still enormous. The entire cost structure underlying the use of computers is turning upside down, things have changed very fast. (Author)
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Dec 01, 1981
- Accession Number
- ADA116874
Entities
People
- David Leinweber
Organizations
- RAND Corporation