The B-G System of Evaluating Forecasts.

Abstract

To score a forecast of an event, like the noontime temperature at a city airport, a system has been proposed that would measure the improvement of the forecast over simple climatic information. If the climatic probability of the forecast (F) is PF, and that of the observed event (V) is PV, then the assigned score (sFV) becomes sFV = -ln(1 - P1)P2 - 1, where P1 = min(PF, PV) and P2 = max(PF, PV). A test of the forecaster's skill, however, requires a large set of forecasts and corresponding verifications.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 04, 1982
Accession Number
ADA118735

Entities

People

  • Albert R. Boehm
  • Irving I. Gringorten

Organizations

  • Air Force Research Laboratory

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Chi Square Test
  • Cloud Cover
  • Coefficients
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Errors
  • Frequency
  • Information Science
  • Littoral Combat Ships
  • Meteorology
  • Probability
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States
  • Verification
  • Weather Forecasting

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Statistical inference.