On the Asymptotic Distribution of the Size of a Stochastic Epidemic.

Abstract

For a stochastic epidemic of the type considered by Bailey (1) and Kendall (3), Daniels (2) showed that 'when the threshold is large but the population size is much larger, the distribution of the number remaining uninfected in a large epidemic has approximately the Poisson form.' A simple, intuitive proof is given for this result without use of Daniels' assumption that the original number of infectives is 'small'. The proof is based on a construction of the epidemic process which is more explicit than the usual description. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADA119370

Entities

People

  • Thomas Sellke

Organizations

  • Stanford University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Binomials
  • Construction
  • Diseases And Disorders
  • Inequalities
  • Infection
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Military Research
  • Order Statistics
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Statistics
  • Time Intervals
  • Transitions
  • Universities
  • Wound Infections

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Infectious Disease/Epidemiology
  • Regression Analysis.