A Dynamic Model for Modern Military Conflict.
Abstract
In order to account for the importance of accurate and timely information in modern warfare, four state variables are defined corresponding to information and forces of two opposing sides. The dynamics of the interactions between the variables is modeled by non-linear evolution equations. The arbitrary non-linear attrition functions are approximated by polynomials of second degree. Of the 32 possible coefficients, 20 are identifiable with C3I, counter-C3, intelligence, and firepower of the opposite sides. The remainder are set to zero and the resulting system of dynamical equations are examined for stationary points and for stability. It is determined that several stationary points are possible and a method is presented to determine one of them as the solution of a system of linear equations. The model is examined for stability near this equilibrium point. It is shown to be environmentally unstable, and to have a bifurcation. That is, when unstable, either side may win depending on whom gains an initial advantage., When stable at unity equilibrium (equal forces in the field) a force multiplication ratio is defined by the ratio of the force replenishment rates. This ratio is easily calculated from the C3I, counter-C3, intelligence, and firepower parameters of the model.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1982
- Accession Number
- ADA122491
Entities
People
- Paul H. Moose
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School