A Statistical Evaluation of Military Construction Project Cost Estimates.
Abstract
The provision of accurate total construction cost estimates to the Congress is a continuing problem for the Naval Facilities Engineering Command. It is the purpose of this thesis to provide a series of equations which will reduce the variance of the actual total cost from the estimated total cost. When these equations are applied over the long run to all Military Construction projects, this variance could be reduced by approximately ninety percent. These equations are derived through the use of statistical regression of the past eight years' Military Construction project's actual cost regressed on the project's authorized cost. A total of 1065 projects are compared and the resulting equations are assembled by Engineering Field Division (EFD) and by fiscal year. In addition to the regression equations, an average project cost variation and a weighted cost variation is provided for each EFD. These variations can be used by the EFD's as trend indicators and measures of the overall effectiveness of the EFD's cost estimation practices.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1982
- Accession Number
- ADA122500
Entities
People
- William J. Paine
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School