The Nuclearization of the Middle East and the Subcontinent
Abstract
The nature of conventional warfare in the Middle East is changing. Contrary to the model of previous regional conflicts war consists now of attritional contests between states the political goals of which are no longer self-evident. Not only is this changed mode of warfare less responsive to megapolicies but because of the potential economic importance of the contestants the ability of normally minor states to develop significant action capabilities in the global arena has been notably enhanced. The possibilities for nuclear proliferation have, therefore, increased proportionally. This study seeks to document the development of regional nuclear options in a changed environment and to demonstrate the impact which the nuclear status of states outside the Middle East has had on the nuclearization of the traditional belligerents. A model of peacetime horizontal proliferation for the Middle East will be proposed and an attempt to fit this model to the strategy and tactics of nuclear deterrence under conditions of conflict will be made. Thus, it can be shown that a nuclear deterrent strategy based on mutual assured destruction is theoretically possible and, in point of practical fact, may be necessary for the long-term stability of the region. Concluding with the assertion that the actual state of bilateral relations between the superpowers is inadequate for the management of regional nuclearization in the event of uncontrolled escalation, this study will suggest that a global approach to the problem must be reformulated before the hypothetical becomes the real.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1982
- Accession Number
- ADA123276
Entities
People
- Lewis B. Ware
Organizations
- Air University