Nonadditivity in Inference Judgments.

Abstract

It has been known for some time that subjects in Bayesian tasks produce data that look more like averages than like inferences. Shanteau suggested that the proper descriptive rule for the data is a weighted average. Wallsten, however, pointed out that a constant weighted averaging rule such as Shanteau used is formally equivalent to the Bayesian rule in that both are qualitatively additive. In principle, however, averaging can be differentially weighted, in which case it becomes non-additive. This paper reports two experiments that test for additivity in an inference task. Although the group data were, on the whole, additive, there were numerous violations of additivity in the single subject data. These comprised three general categories: (1) violations that are interpretable as resulting from a serial adjustment process in which adjustments are toward the value of the new information presented, (2) violations that are interpretable as resulting from a serial adjustment process in which adjustments are Bayesian-like in their direction, and (3) violations that appeared to be systematic but had no ready interpretation. (Author)

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADA124232

Entities

People

  • Lola L. Lopes

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Applied Psychology
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Jet Propulsion
  • Military Research
  • Navy
  • Operations Research
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Probability
  • Psychology
  • Students
  • Systems Engineering
  • United States

Readers

  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Machine Translation