Superefficient Simulation of Markov Chains and Semi-Markov Processes.

Abstract

This paper describes a method of simulating a Markov chain for the purpose of estimating functions of the chain and functions of associated semi-Markov processes. In particular, special attention is devoted to the estimation of the probability density function of first passage time from, say, state a to state b. Rotation sampling is used to achieve variances of estimators of order 0(1/k squared), where k is the number of replications, which compares with 0(1/k) when independently sampled replications are used. Since both independent and rotation sampling have computation time complexity 0(k), the relative advantage of rotation sampling is clear as k implies infinity. The paper presents two examples to illustrate the method. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADA124252

Entities

People

  • George S. Fishman

Organizations

  • University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computations
  • Estimators
  • Markov Chains
  • Markov Processes
  • North Carolina
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Random Variables
  • Sampling
  • Simulations
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Systems Analysis

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Statistical inference.