A Comparison of Forecasted and Actual Flying Programs for CY 1973-1979.

Abstract

Predictions of future flying program activity are critical elements in the requirement computations for both reparable and consumable items. In both of these requirements computations, it is assumed that: Demand is proportional to flying program activity, and It is possible to accurately forecast the flying activity to be performed in future periods. In this paper, we use historical data for calendar years 1973 through 1979 to test the second assumption. That is, we compare forecasts of flying program activity made during these years to the actual flying activity which was eventually performed. In the next section, we discuss the sources of data used in our computations more fully, and describe the calculations used in comparing predicted and actual flying programs. In the appendix, we present plots for 26 USAF aircraft describing both program activity and forecasting accuracy observed during this time interval.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Oct 01, 1980
Accession Number
ADA124534

Entities

People

  • W. Steven Demmy

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Abstracts
  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Analysis Of Variance
  • Computations
  • Contracts
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Information Science
  • Intervals
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Statistical Data
  • Time Intervals
  • Weapon Systems
  • Weapons

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Computer Science.
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Regression Analysis.