A Monte Carlo Technique Suitable for Obtaining Complex Space System Reliability Confidence Limits from Component Test Data with Three Unknown Parameters.

Abstract

A Double Monte Carlo method of obtaining confidence limits for complex systems based on component failure data assuming a three parameter Weibull distribution was developed. Three new parameter estimation routines were developed and compared with the Harter-Moore three parameter maximum likelihood routine for use with the Monte Carlo method. The sensitivity of the method to system reliability, sample size, and number of points in the component reliability distributions was assessed. An approximate method of calculating and correcting for parameter estimation bias was developed and illustrated. The Double Monte Carlo method appears to be effective at system reliabilities from 74% to 96% with component failure sample sizes as well as five with the Linear Least Squares parameter estimation routine developed. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1982
Accession Number
ADA124753

Entities

People

  • Murray Ross Macdonald

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Advanced Electronics
  • Air Platforms
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Complex Systems
  • Computational Science
  • Confidence Limits
  • Data Science
  • Differential Equations
  • Distribution Functions
  • Equations
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Information Science
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Order Statistics
  • Partial Differential Equations
  • Random Variables
  • Reliability
  • Space Systems
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistics

Readers

  • Regression Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • Space