A Small Sample Evaluation of a Bayesian Design Method for Quantal Response Model

Abstract

The author proposes a design measure which may be used sequentially to choose the next dose level in a linear logistic quantal response model for bioassay. His design measure averages the posterior distribution of the effective dose over those ED(effect dose) values which are regarded as important. In this evaluation the mode of the design density is used as the next design point, and it is supposed that all ED values between ED 60 and ED 90 are equally important. After ten initial badly designed observations, it is shown that only 20 further, well designed, observations are needed to obtain a design efficiency of about 82%, and an estimated response curve which lies at a maximum of an estimated ED points from the true curve, for all ED values lying between ED 60 and ED 90. If more observations are taken then the design efficiency increases steadily, but it is difficult to increase the accuracy of estimation without either taking many more observations, or by pushing the design points outside the appropriate region. However, within the design region, chosen by any recommended procedure, the method promises excellent robustness, with respect to possible inadequacies in the model, whilst outlying design points would not provide such robustness.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Feb 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADA127942

Entities

People

  • Tom Leonard

Organizations

  • University of Wisconsin–Madison

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Bioassay
  • Computer Simulations
  • Computing-Related Activities
  • Contracts
  • Data Science
  • Efficiency
  • Information Science
  • Mathematics
  • Military Research
  • North Carolina
  • Observation
  • Simulations
  • Statistics
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States
  • Wisconsin

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Software Engineering
  • Statistical inference.
  • Systems Analysis and Design

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference