Toward a Calculus of Scenarios.

Abstract

The author speculates about the possibility and desirability of developing a formal calculus for evaluating scenarios. Scenarios are an essential element of military planning. The author arques for the need of a calculus--a rigcrous method for evaluation--of the scenarios used in military planning studies. The purpose of the calculus in not to generate scenarios, but to evaluate them within some commonly shared framework or set of rules. A two-dimensional structure for evaluating scenarios is suggested as an illustration of how formal procedures might be employed to diagram a scenario, much as a sentence or electrical circuit is diagramed. A calculus of scenarios, if developed along the lines proposed in the Note, would enable the defender and critic of a scenario to reason together about its omissions, inconsistencies, and uncertainties. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADA128361

Entities

People

  • Carl H. Builder

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Counter WMD
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aeronautical Engineering
  • Aircrafts
  • Airplanes
  • Ballistic Missiles
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Electrical Circuits
  • Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
  • Mental Processes
  • Military Operations
  • Military Planning
  • North America
  • Nuclear Weapons
  • Operations Research
  • Tanker Aircraft
  • Test And Evaluation
  • United States

Readers

  • Computational Linguistics
  • Game Theory.
  • Systems Analysis and Design