Enlisted Supply: Past, Present, and Future. Volume 1. Executive Summary & Main Text
Abstract
There is concern about the ability of the armed forces to meet their accession requirements as youth population declines over the next 10-15 years. This study addresses this concern by developing a way to predict the supply of high quality accessions to all four services. Accessions are then projected for the rest of the decade under various assumptions. Data organized by Navy Recruiting District for the period 1976-1981 are examined to relate the number of high quality accession contracts to economic and policy factors, as well as to the size of the youth population. The pay of civilian youth, military pay, recruiters, advertising, and economic conditions were key determinants of recruit supply. GI Bill benefits induced many accessions. Population was important, but not as important as many expected. Projections indicate that (with minor exceptions) recruiting goals can be met through the 80s if current plans are executed. Over the longer run, goals can be met if military pay keeps up with civilian youth pay and if recruiting resources are made available quickly when the economy strengthens.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1982
- Accession Number
- ADA136727
Entities
People
- Lawrence Goldberg
Organizations
- Center for Naval Analyses