Learning in a Probabilistic Environment: A New Approach, and Some Preliminary Findings.

Abstract

Many studies of 'probability learning' have led to the conclusion that human learners cannot find the 'rule' amidst the 'noise' (Brehmer, 1980). It is hypothesized that under more natural conditions, learners do develop rules which are probabilistically predictive, and improve chiefly through the addition of new predictive variables. The present study represents natural learning situations by including: instructions and rewards that emphasize gradual development of understanding, rather than discovery of the right rule; and a large number of cues, which must be discovered, rather than a few cues explicitly given. Results with 12 college-student subjects indicate significant learning in a computer-displayed task, over approximately 10 hours of experience. Learning was incremental, and was accompanied by the addition of valid factors to existing rules. These results contrast with findings that people fail to utilize information effectively in probabilistic situations. Earlier studies do not, however, model situations in which learning requires the discovery and validation of predictive cues, processes critical for the development of real-world expertise.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADA137031

Entities

People

  • J. Klayman

Organizations

  • University of Chicago

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Applied Psychology
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Engineering
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Industrial Engineering
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Jet Propulsion
  • Judgment
  • Military Research
  • Navy
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Psychology
  • Reasoning
  • Students
  • Systems Engineering

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Brain and Cognitive Science; Experimental Psychology; Cognitive Neuroscience
  • Systems Analysis and Design