Decision Theory: Individual Biases and Their Effect on Forecasting in an Organization.

Abstract

There has been a great deal written about how individual cognitive biases effect decision making. However, there is little empirical evidence to show how such heuristic patterns affect decision making within organizations. This thesis reviews the literature concerning heuristics and behavioral decision theory and then examines budgetary forecasting decisions within two large organizations to see if these biases can be observed in forecasts produced within organizations. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADA137943

Entities

People

  • D. A. Schwiering
  • J. T. Shannon

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Availability
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Budgets
  • California
  • Corporations
  • Decision Theory
  • Federal Budgets
  • Literature
  • Materials
  • Organizational Structure
  • Political Science
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Psychology
  • Ships
  • United States
  • United States Naval Academy

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Systems Analysis and Design