An Analysis of Demand Forecasting Emphasizing Inventory Effectiveness

Abstract

An analysis is made of the Navy's demand forecasting process and its impact on inventory system effectiveness. The current Navy Uniform Inventory Control Point (UICP) forecasting model is compared with an alternative computer- oriented technique using UICP data. The comparison highlights the presence of highly erratic patterns in the UICP demand data base. Next, a simulation model is exercised to suggest how the UICP demand reporting method might contribute to the variance of recorded demand. The thesis concludes with another simulation indicating the relation of demand forecasting accuracy on each component of total inventory cost. This simulation suggests that, while holding and ordering costs remain relatively, insensitive to fluctuations in forecast accuracy, the stockout cost element displays a hypersensitive reaction.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADA138615

Entities

People

  • Nicholas M. Sullivan

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Computer Programs
  • Computer Simulations
  • Computers
  • Data Processing
  • Data Storage Systems
  • Databases
  • Delphi Method
  • Inventory Control
  • Mathematical Models
  • Operations Research
  • Organizational Structure
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Schools
  • Simulations
  • Standards
  • United States

Readers

  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Systems Analysis and Design
  • Vision Science/Vision Psychology/Cognitive Neuroscience.