Estimating Time Averages via Randomly-Spaced Observations.

Abstract

In many stochastic systems, one is interested in estimating steady-state expected values. When Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate such parameters, an assessment of accuracy, in the form of confidence intervals, is often required. Most procedures for producing such confidence intervals require that the simulation be sampled so that the time increments between observations are all equal. This is difficult to accomplish in a discrete-event simulation, since the clock which drives the simulation is incremented in a random fashion. To estimate continuous-time averages via randomly-spaced observations of discrete-event systems, the authors develop a point-process framework and use it to generalize both regenerative and stationary-process oriented simulation methodologies. They give consistent estimators, central limit theorems, and an effective bias-reducing jackknife. The impact of indirect estimation of transaction (customer) averages is discussed.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1984
Accession Number
ADA139315

Entities

People

  • B. L. Fox
  • P. W. Glynn

Organizations

  • University of Wisconsin–Madison

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Data Science
  • Estimators
  • Information Science
  • Intervals
  • Mathematics
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Observation
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Simulations
  • Stationary
  • Stationary Processes
  • Statistical Algorithms
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Steady State
  • United States
  • Wisconsin

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Mathematics or Statistics
  • Statistical inference.

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Space Objects