Military Experts' Estimates of Continuous Operations Performance (or Close but No Cigar)

Abstract

The feasibility of supplementing human performance data with estimates of performance in adverse environments was examined for cases where no hard data is available for use in land combat models. The accuracy of military experts' estimates of performance in continuous operations was evaluated by examining the amount of convergence between samples of estimates made by military officers and actual performance values obtained in four field exercises. There was strong agreement among the officers in their predictions of performance. However, the officers' predictions of performance did not agree with actual performance measures obtained in the field exercises.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 1983
Accession Number
ADA140220

Entities

People

  • K. L. Neff
  • R. E. Solick

Organizations

  • U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Army Personnel
  • Artillery
  • Command And Control
  • Computations
  • Guns
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Land Warfare
  • Machine Guns
  • Military Research
  • Motor Skills
  • Moving Targets
  • Psychology
  • Reliability
  • Social Sciences
  • Standards
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.
  • Psychometric Testing or Psychological Assessment.