Climate Prediction. Part 1. Cyclone Frequency.
Abstract
Climate prediction models based on multivariate analyses of cyclone frequencies are constructed from historical data (1885-1960) and evaluated for forecast skill on independent data (1960-1983). Cyclone frequencies are predicted for six-month duration seasons at 87 locations over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic from 27.5 deg to 55 deg. Three types of principal components models are constructed and tested. Model I uses unrotated principal component axes; Model II uses rigid rotation of the component axes; and, Model III uses oblique rotations of the component axes. Forecast skill averages 75% correct for 2 category measure of forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jul 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA143576
Entities
People
- B. P. Hayden
Organizations
- University of Virginia