Setting Hurricane Conditions of Readiness with High Confidence.

Abstract

A procedure for setting hurricane readiness conditions with a high degree of reliability is described. The methodology utilizes a large number of computer-simulated forecasts for actual hurricanes since 1899 that passed near Key West, FL or Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Wind probabilities were computed from these forecasts assuming present-day official forecast error characteristics, and then compared to hindsight estimates of actual winds. These data were used to establish hurricane condition thresholds at desired levels of confidence as related to wind probability. Threshold values for 95% confidence are given for hurricane readiness conditions at Key West and Guantanamo Bay.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 01, 1984
Accession Number
ADA144785

Entities

People

  • G. Kostyshack
  • J. Jarrell

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter WMD

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cyclones
  • Hurricanes
  • Meteorology
  • National Security
  • Naval Air Stations
  • Naval Operations
  • Navy
  • New York
  • Probability
  • Security
  • Storm Surges
  • Storms
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Uss America
  • Uss Constellation
  • Uss Kitty Hawk
  • Uss Nimitz

Readers

  • Coastal Oceanography
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Vector-Borne Disease and Entomology