Probable Cause: A Decision Making Framework.
Abstract
Causal inference is an essential cognitive activity that combines judgments of causation with judgments of probable cause. A framework for understanding how judgments of probable cause are made is presented that consists of three major elements: (1) The authors first discuss the concept of a causal background and show how the causal strength of a variable depends on it being a deviation or difference in a background; (2) They discuss various cues-to-causality such as covariation, temporal order, contiguity in time and space, and similarity of cause and effect; and (3) The discounting of an explanation by specific alternatives is discussed as a special case of the sequential updating of beliefs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA147642
Entities
People
- H. J. Einhorn
- R. M. Hogarth
Organizations
- University of Chicago