A Time Series Analysis of Recoverable Spares Requirements.

Abstract

The need for a better understanding of relationships between various logistics variables and spares requirements has become evident due to recent understatements of recoverable spares requirements. This thesis used Box-Jenkins time series analysis techniques to identify the linear relationships within and between C-130 spares requirements and flying hours. The analysis identified relationships within and between the two time series which are not currently considered in the linear regression forecasting model. A model which recognizes these additional relationships (time lags, seasonality, etc.) provides a better fit to the historical data, measured by a chi-square statistic but does not reduce dispersion about the mean, measured by the residual mean squared . This result is an indication that the relationship may not be linear. Additional data and research is required to confirm that the relationships are non-linear and to develop a model suitable for long range requirements forecasting.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1984
Accession Number
ADA147667

Entities

People

  • T. G. Lockette

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accounting
  • Air Force
  • Aircrafts
  • Business Administration
  • Cargo Aircraft
  • Classification
  • Computers
  • Cross Correlation
  • Data Science
  • Databases
  • Department Of Defense
  • Information Science
  • Logistics
  • Power Spectra
  • Procurement
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time Series Analysis

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Statistical inference.