Two-Dimensional Modeling for Lineal and Areal Probabilities of Weather Conditions.
Abstract
Single-point probabilities of weather conditions, which are easily estimated from climatic records, have been extended to lines and areas by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation was accomplished using the Boehm Sawtooth Wave (BSW) model. This model was chosen because of its speed and simplicity, and because it has a spatial correlation function similar to that of many weather elements. The BSW model generates fields (or maps) of normally distributed values called Equivalent Normal Deviates (ENDs). The procedure was to obtain the cumulative probability distribution for threshold END values. To do this, a large number of maps had to be generated, 25,000 in all, to approximate the true probability distributions. This was done for 12 different sized square areas and lines. The results were put in graphical form by plotting the probabilities as a function of areal and lineal size, and fitting them to curves through hand analysis. The curves were then fitted by equations, making it possible to obtain solutions quickly by computer. Thus, a model has been produced that can be used to estimate the probability that a certain weather condition will cover a given area or length, or fraction of an area or length.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 10, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA147970
Entities
People
- C. F. Burger
- I. I. Gringorten
Organizations
- Air Force Research Laboratory