A Replication and Extension of the Inducement of the Availability Heuristic

Abstract

The availability of an event in an observer's memory is postulated to be one of the bases for estimates of its frequency of past occurrence or the probability of future occurrence. In a previous study, enhancing every occurrence of an event produced an overestimation of frequency and probability estimations and predictive choices. However, the general finding of overestimation held only for events at the low (3/225) and high (30/225) ends of the test range; in the middle range (12/225) judgments were fairly accurate. The present study sought to replicate the availability bias induced in the previous study and to explore the underlying cognitive processes by manipulating the conditions used to induce the bias. Originator-supplied keywords include: Case studies; Decision making; Statistical analysis; Emergencies; Crisis management; Ambulances; Frequency, Police; Events; and Occurrences.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Dec 01, 1984
Accession Number
ADA149755

Entities

People

  • G. Fontenelle
  • W. C. Howell

Organizations

  • Rice University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • C4I
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Applied Psychology
  • Behavioral Sciences
  • Biological Sciences
  • Cognition
  • Engineering
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Information Science
  • Judgment
  • Military Research
  • Operations Research
  • Probability
  • Psychology
  • Schools
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Systems Engineering
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Psychology

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Psychological Intervention/Treatment for Stress, Anxiety, PTSD, and Related Emotional and Cognitive Health Symptoms.
  • Regression Analysis.