Intermediate Term Forecasting Techniques for Management.

Abstract

In this thesis autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) forecasts are made for the prices of a variety of commodities one year into the future in an attempt to determine if improved budget accuracy is possible for small businesses dependent upon commodities for the production of goods or services. An average forecast error of less than seven percent is obtained using commonly available ARIMA computer software employable on inexpensive microcomputers. It is concluded small businesses can affordably obtain more accurate commodity price budgets through the use of ARIMA forecasts. Additional keywords: hypotheses, mathematical models, mathematical prediction, Box Jenkins method, aluminum, coal, cotton, gasoline, soybeans, steel, tin, zinc. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1984
Accession Number
ADA151370

Entities

People

  • D. L. Herring

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Business Administration
  • Commerce
  • Computer Programming
  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Data Analysis
  • Economics
  • Equations
  • Information Science
  • Mainframe Computers
  • Personal Computers
  • Security
  • Small Business
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • United States

Readers

  • Industrial Economics
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Statistical inference.