Shuttle Fleet Operations: A Simulation Analysis
Abstract
This Note documents a two-part analysis of the reliability of the Space Transportation System (STS). The first part is a strictly statistical examination of the inherent bounds on reliability prediction based on accumulated mission experience as the shuttle program evolves. The results of this analysis suggest that it will take a long history of successes to firmly establish a high shuttle reliability, and that therefore, some contingency provisions should be retained during the early part of the program at least. The second phase of the analysis is aimed at gaining some insight into the operational consequences of less than perfect reliability. This analysis suggests that the risks from the uncertainties surrounding loss or retirement of orbiters, stand-down periods, and delays in refurbishment and turnaround can be reduced by supplementing the four-orbiter STS fleet with additional orbiters or an alternative launch system. Additional keywords: Space missions, Launch vehicles, Statistical analysis, Computations, Confidence intervals, Computerized simulation, Statistical bounds.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA151383
Entities
People
- D. Leinweber
Organizations
- RAND Corporation