Simulation of a Synchronously Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Prediction Model.
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to explore the need for time-dependent sea-surface temperatures in atmospheric model predictions to 10 days. Six and nine-layer versions of the Navy Operational Global Prediction System (NOGAPS) are used in this study. Control forecasts were made in which the sea-surface temperature (SST) is fixed in time. Test hindcasts were made in which the SST was updated at each time step of the atmospheric model using interpolations of 12-hourly SST analyses. The 10-day predictions are compared to determine any improvement or degradation due to the time-dependent SST. Two cases are analyzed, one during November 1983 and another during April 1984. Use of time-dependent SST's resulted in significant changes in the forecast fields of surface heat fluxes and precipitation which were physically consistent with the SST trend. Analysis of 15 storm forecasts revealed significant changes in storm track duration or cyclogenesis in only 4 cases. Three of these cases were forecast by the nine-layer version of NOGAPS during the April period and one case was forecast by the six-layer NOCAPS during the November period. Originator-supplied keywords include: Atmosphere-ocean coupled models, Sea surface temperature, NOGAPS, and T-EOTS.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA152020
Entities
People
- P. J. Rovero
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School