A Possible Change in Soviet Views on the Prospects for Anti-Submarine Warfare.
Abstract
In the summer of 1982 there was an apparent shift in Soviet views on the future potential for combating submarines. The following points trace the perceived evolution of this shift. (1) From the early 1970s, Soviet emphasis had been on the submarine's great capacity for concealment and the decreasing cost effectiveness of anti-submarine warfare (ASW) as a 'law-governed' trend extending into the foreseeable future; (2) The first sign of a new perspective came in 1979-80; here, the Soviets implied that no significant breakthrough in ASW was expected during the next five-year plan (1981-85), but they did not rule out an effective innovation after that; (3) In 1982, however, the Soviets apparently saw an operational capability arising ahead of this schedule. Using alleged U.S. views as an almost certain surrogate for their own, they indicated that a 'technological break-through' in ASW (possibly nonacoustic and space-based) was imminent, perhaps (this is the best interpretation) before the end of the current planning period in 1985. A new 'law-governed' trend in naval affairs was set out: the growing susceptibility of submarines to detection and the increasing cost effectiveness of ASW; (4) If Moscow is on the verge of a long-range detection capability, then one might want to speculate on the means they would develop for submarine kill. It is conceivable thay they might revive the concept, abandoned in the 1970s, of using a submarine-launched ballistic-missile (SLBM) system for hitting mobile targets as sea.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA153610
Entities
People
- J. M. Mcconnell
Organizations
- Center for Naval Analyses