Recruitment Early Warning System and Accession Contingency Planning Process. Phase II. Part 1.
Abstract
The REWS/ACPP (Recruiting Early Warning System and Accession Contingency Planning Process) study is the development of an interim automated information system for generating monthly Recruiting Market Assessment Reports. The system (described in Chapter IV) forecasts unemployment and high-quality enlistments for each Service, and produces tabular and graphic presentations of these forecasts, as well as supporting data useful for analyzing trends in recruiting. Regression models for enlistments and a univariate ARIMA model for unemployment are estimated in a mainframe environment, then captured in ASCII files and transferred to a micro computer environment where tables and graphs are produced. The October Assessment Report (presented in Chapter II) illustrates the outputs generated by the system. The study team has identified software which may enable the transfer of the entire system to an IBM XT in the next phase of the study. Other accomplishments include model development and further data collection (Chapter I). The enlistment forecasting models used in the REWS have been expanded: new policy variables were added, an additional model was estimated for the Marine Corps, and all models were re-estimated over an updated time period, November '78 - September '84. The study team also requested and/or collected data on advertising leads and expenditures, DEP factors, retention, and policy changes. These additional series are useful for model development or market assessment.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA154013
Entities
People
- L. Goldberg
- P. Greenston
- S. Andrews
- S. Hermansen