Bayesian Inference in Group Judgment Formulation and Decision Making Using Qualitative Controlled Feedback,

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about group judgments and group decisions using Qualitative Controlled Feedback, from the Bayesian point of view. The qualitative controlled feedback procedure was first introduced for a single question of interest. The procedure is first reviewed here including the extension of the model to the multiple question case. We develop a model for responses of the panel on each stage. Many questions are treated simultaneously and an autoregressive model is developed for explaining the responses of the group members as a function of the feedback. The errors are assumed to follow a matrix intraclass covariance structure. Marginal and conditional posterior distributions of the regression coefficient vector are found in both small and large samples. The broadly defined generic family of multidimensional Student-t distributions is found to play a major role in the results.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 1979
Accession Number
ADA154200

Entities

People

  • S. J. Press

Organizations

  • RAND Corporation

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Bayesian Inference
  • Coefficients
  • Composite Materials
  • Covariance
  • Data Science
  • Estimators
  • Feedback
  • Hypergeometric Functions
  • Information Science
  • Judgment
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Reasoning
  • Statistical Inference
  • Statistics
  • Surveys

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Theoretical Analysis.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML
  • AI & ML - Bayesian Inference
  • AI & ML - Machine Learning Algorithms