Some Policy Implications of Nuclear Winter
Abstract
The theory of nuclear winter has had as checkered a history as any new idea since Darwin published "The Origin of Species". There have been questions of its scientific validity, reviews both laudatory and damning, pleas for arms reductions, hosannahs for a newfound hope that nuclear war has at least been rendered completely unthinkable, and frustration that two generations of human toil in weapons laboratories and think tanks have been rendered by a natural "doomsday machine". Some have even suggested that nuclear winter might be used as an offensive weapon. Disturbingly, a substantial number of commentators have concluded that nuclear winter carries no immediate implications for policy, because to their way of thinking, nuclear winter is a (a) just one more of the many undesirable effects of nuclear war; (b) the ultimate deterrent to nuclear use, and therefore should be welcomed rather than compensated for; or (c) an unproven theory, meaning that consideration of policy questions is premature. Those who overlook the policy questions are following a dangerous path. The nuclear winter theory contains serious short- and long-term implications for United States foreign and strategic policy, Although the theory may never be confirmed or refuted, discussion of these policy questions should begin now because many of the potential effects of nuclear-winter--particularly in foreign policy--will come about regardless of whether or not the phenomenon can actually exist.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA154945
Entities
People
- J. J. Gertler
Organizations
- RAND Corporation