Foreign Military Sales Termination Liability Curve: Applied Random Coefficient Model

Abstract

The Aviation Systems Command (AVSCOM) Directorate for Procurement and Production (P&P) asked the Command's Directorate for Plans and Analysis to review and update specific AVSCOM Cost Memorandums concerning Foreign Military Sales (FMS) termination liability curves. This report discusses a statistical methodology offered to update AVSCOM's FMS termination liability schedules and contrasts it with the technique employed in previous AVSCOM studies on the same subject. Applying both methods to a common data base, it is demonstrated that a linear estimation of a logistics or exponential type curve using regression analysis produces parameters that are not significantly different from the 'equally likely' curve derived in earlier cost memorandums. It is also suggested that a Random Coefficient Model can be seriously considered in future updates. Keywords: Random Coefficient Model, Foreign Military Sales, Termination Liability, Regression Analysis, Logistic Curve.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 01, 1985
Accession Number
ADA155414

Entities

People

  • W. J. Waymire

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aircrafts
  • Army Aircraft
  • Autocorrelation
  • Contractors
  • Contracts
  • Cost Analysis
  • Costs
  • Databases
  • Foreign Military Sales
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • New York
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Procurement
  • Regression Analysis
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistical Inference

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Logistics and Supply Chain Management.
  • Statistical inference.