Forecasting the Wages of Young Men: The Effects of Cohort Size.
Abstract
In this study, the authors develop forecasts of the civilian wage structure over the next two decades for a variety of different scenarios. They focus on how the wage structure will change as the demographic trend reverses itself, i.e., as the smaller post-baby-boom birth cohorts enter the labor market in the 1980s and 1990s. Section II of the report describes the survey data used to create a working file for the analysis. Based on this file, the authors paint a broad overview of how cohort size and relative wages have changed over the 1967-1980 period. Section III discusses the wage model used and highlights the main empirical results. The assumptions and approach used to forecast wages are detailed in Section IV. Section V extends the wage model to investigate two alternative explanations for the observed decline in youth wages. The last section concludes with a summary of the main findings and their implications for military compensation policy. Additional keywords: Salaries; Income; and Military personnel.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA155420
Entities
People
- Haochen Tan
- M. J. Ward
Organizations
- RAND Corporation