Evaluation of Nuclear Detonation Location Capability under High Attack Scenario.
Abstract
Analysis was conducted to see how the location accuracy of a nuclear detonation (NUDET) and probability of damage (Pd) calculations were affected by high rates of attack NUDET locations were generated by random variates from horizontal cumulative distributions, a function of the number of satellites/sensors observing the NUDET. Location was calculated for target silos with cratering and impulse as the damage mechanisms. The estimated Pd was compared to the actual Pd. System performance in correctly predicting a target as destroyed was poor. A target's Pd exceeding 50% was the criteria for a target being destroyed. Decreasing the location error by factor of 12 greatly improved the system's ability (53%) to determine a target as destroyed. However, 18% of the targets were incorrectly considered destroyed. This problem was eliminated using 90% threshold criteria, yet system performance was highly degraded. These implications have to be weighed and understood when such systems are used in the decision making process. Keywords include: Nuclear weapons; Space systems; Surveillance.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA155761
Entities
People
- F. A. Zawada
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology