CYCLOPS Objective Steering Model Output Statistics (COSMOS).

Abstract

COSMOS is a statistical aid designed to assist the forecastor in interpreting CYCLOPS output. Using CYCLOPS (a geostrophic steering model) output in the unmodified prognostic mode for the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels, the model categorizes the forecast situation based on the direction of flow at these levels. Once categorized, levels, or combinations of levels, are selected as predictors for zonal and meridional motion. The selection of levels, or combinations of levels, is based on the results of a statistical analysis of CYCLOPS performance during the 1982/1983 tropical cyclone seasons in the western North Pacific. A bias, also derived from this analysis, is then applied to produce the 72-hour forecast position. The 24- and 48-hour forecast positions are a blend of persistence and interpolation to the 72-hour forecast position. Additional keywords: tropical cyclone forecasting; typhoons; hurricanes; geostrophic currents. (Author)

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1984
Accession Number
ADA157148

Entities

People

  • R. L. Allen

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Cyclones
  • Data Science
  • Delphi Method
  • Geostrophic Currents
  • Hurricanes
  • Information Science
  • Interpolation
  • Mathematics
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Statistics
  • Steering
  • Tropical Cyclones

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computer Engineering
  • Systems Analysis and Design