An Analysis of the Effects of Varying Male and Female Force Levels. Annex 3. Volume 3. The Prospects for Military Enlistments: An Assessment.
Abstract
The purpose of this report is to examine the impacts of labor market trends on youth employment opportunities and military enlistments, and to review the determinants of enlistment contracts and related methodological issues. During the period 1979-1984, the number of military enlistment contracts that were high school graduates scoring relatively high in the Armed Forces Qualifications Test nearly doubled. This observation was very much contrary to predictions by many analysts in 1979. Some analysts are projecting that the volunteer military is not assured of survival despite its success during the past five years. There are numerous statistical models that have been developed to identify the determinants of military enlistments and to project the future course of enlistment contracts. Three of these models are reviewed in this study. General labor market trends are reviewed. Two time paths for enlistment contracts of high school graduates with relatively high test scores are generated for the period 1984 to 1993, the year that the size of the youth population ages 17-21 reaches a minimum. The outlook for the volunteer military is not bleak. The report concludes with an evaluation of enlistment model methodologies.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA157803
Entities
People
- F. Welch
- G. Borjas
- J. Raisian
- M. P. Ward
- R. Cotterman