Statistical Evaluation of Forecasts Over the Low-Latitudes.
Abstract
A series of experiments, designed to study single level predictions with a barotropic and a primitive equation model has been carried out for 15 June to 15 September 1979 utilizing FGGE (First GARP Global Experiment) data sets. The level chosen for this study is 700 mb with two separate domains being covered. Domain 1 covered a region from 75 W and 20 S to 40 N, while Domain 2 covered a region from 75 W to 30 W and 20 S to 45 N. This study includes a discussion of tropical storm Claudette and also an analysis of the predictions using root mean square vector wind errors and absolute correlations. The results of 93 experiments show that the simple model based on the conservation of vorticity performs worse than persistence for all time periods in Domain 1 and 2. The model based on the conservation of potential vorticity performs better than persistance for up to one day in Domain 1, and up to 4 days in Domain 2. Past experiments and performance are compared. These included the following regions: the Atlantic and West Africa during the northern summer; a region including the Indian Ocean, Indonesia and the central Pacific Ocean during the northern winter; and a similar region during the northern summer. In general, useful skill of all the regions considered is exhibited only over the following: Central America and South America during northern summer to 4 days, West Africa and Eastern Atlantic during northern summer to 4 days, Central Pacific Ocean during northern winter to 1 day.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Aug 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA157926
Entities
People
- C. P. Zelzer
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology