An Improved Method of Risk Analysis for the Naval Ship Design Process. Course XIIIA.

Abstract

A new method for quantifying risk in the naval ship design process by means of probability distributions is presented. Risk is equated with uncertainty about the characteristics of the design. The causes of uncertainty in a ship synthesis model are discussed and analytical methods for combining probability distributions based on work in the cost analysis field are presented. Additionally, recommendations are made on how to implement this methodology in the Navy's ASSET ship synthesis model and an example is given of how the results from a tradeoff study using these methods would be presented to a decision maker. The methodology will give a clearer picture of the type and sources of risk to a decision maker and has applications in several phases of ship design. Finally, recommendations for further research and implementation are given. (Thesis).

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1985
Accession Number
ADA158965

Entities

People

  • S. P. Walsh

Organizations

  • Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Aerospace Industry
  • Algorithms
  • Data Science
  • Detection
  • Distribution Functions
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Gaussian Distributions
  • Information Science
  • Marine Engineering
  • Metacentric Height
  • Probability Density Functions
  • Probability Distributions
  • Random Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Analysis
  • Ship Design

Fields of Study

  • Engineering

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Naval Mine Countermeasure Systems Development.
  • Systems Analysis and Design