Forecasting Device Effectiveness. Volume 3. Analytic Assessment of Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique

Abstract

Several analytic procedures were conducted to address various aspects of the scalar properties of the Device Effectiveness Forecasting Technique (DEFT). These procedures included Monte Carlo simulations to assess the interpretation of DEFT output, sensitivity of DEFT parameters, comparison of outputs, stability, and interrater agreement. Results indicated that it would be necessary to incorporate assumptions regarding expected distributions of input variables in order to meaningfully interpret DEFT output. Also, the Monte Carlo analyses demonstrated the sensitivity of DEFT output scores to variations in inputs, and assessed the effects of various assumptions regarding measurement error on output scores. The interrater agreement issue was addressed by having several raters apply DEFT to the three actual training devices. Results indicated a high degree of consistency among raters for all devices for all levels of DEFT. Keywords: Transfer of training; Sensitivity analysis; Reliability.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 01, 1985
Accession Number
ADA160029

Entities

People

  • Andrew M. Rose
  • Anne W. Martin
  • Louise G. Yates

Organizations

  • American Institutes for Research

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Computer Programs
  • Descriptive Analytics
  • Inertial Navigation
  • Inertial Navigation Systems
  • Military Research
  • Navigation
  • Plastic Explosives
  • Probability
  • Simulations
  • Social Sciences
  • Square Roots
  • Standards
  • Students
  • Trainees
  • Training
  • Training Devices

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Instructional Design and Training Evaluation.