Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Prediction Scheme.
Abstract
Since present geomagnetic storm prediction schemes rely entirely on statistical results, so that they can't provide quantitative information on the intensity of a geomagnetic storm caused by a particular solar event, we have been developing a first generation numerical prediction scheme. The scheme consists of two major computer codes which consist of a large number of subroutine codes and of empirical relationships. When a solar flare occurs, six flare parameters are determined as the input data set for the first code which is devised to show the simulated propagation of solar wind disturbances in the heliosphere to a distance of 2 AU. Thus, one can determine the relative location of the propagating disturbances with the earth's position. The solar wind speed and the three interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components are then computed as a function of time at the earth's location or any other desired (space probe) locations. These quantities become the input parameters for the second major code which computes the power of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo as a function of time. The power thus obtained and the three IMF components can be used to compute or infer: (1) the predicted geometry of the auroral oval; (2) the cross-polar cap potential; (3) two geomagnetic indices; (4) the total energy injection rate into the polar ionosphere; (5) the atmospheric temperature, etc. Keywords: Solar wind magnetosphere interaction; Polar cap convection.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA161651
Entities
People
- C. F. Fry
- S. I. Akasofu
Organizations
- University of Alaska Fairbanks