Cost Uncertainty Assessment Methodology: New Initiatives

Abstract

Given the current emphasis on improving all aspect of cost analysis and the primacy of cost uncertainty in the cost estimation process, it is time to assess the quality of the state-of-the-art and look toward improving techniques where needed. An argument supporting the primacy of cost uncertainty analysis and a critical assessment of existing techniques was given. In this paper, we examine some efforts to apply new results and insights, both mathematical and psychological, to the problems of cost uncertainty analysis. The paper will be treat some new ideas pertaining to probability elicitation/ encoding using interactive software and indirect assessment of the uncertainty associated with a CER.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 1985
Accession Number
ADA162146

Entities

People

  • K. T. Wallenius

Organizations

  • United States Department of Defense

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Computer Programs
  • Computers
  • Cost Analysis
  • Costs
  • Department Of Defense
  • Distribution Functions
  • Life Cycle Costs
  • Life Cycles
  • Mathematical Analysis
  • Models
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability
  • Probability Distributions
  • Simulations
  • Standards
  • Uncertainty
  • Unmanned Spacecraft

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Maritime Combat Support and Expeditionary Logistics.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.