The Conflict Forecasting Project
Abstract
An expected utility approach to the study of international and comparative politics offers both the opportunity to deduce propositions about potentially conflictual policy formation, and, to evaluate the usefulness of those propositions as explanations of actual behavior. Many studies that have applied such a framework to international conflict have used the model proposed in The War Trap. Although this model has proven helpful in explaining both intuitively obvious cases of international disputes and seemingly counterintuitive ones, still it possesses several serious shortcomings. The main goal of the Conflict Forecasting Project (hereafter CFP) is to correct some of those shortcomings. Here is a refined version of the expected utility formulation set out in the The War Trap. The model has been reconstructed, protection added against interpersonal comparisons, and an introduction into the model for resistance by an opponent for policy changes.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 01, 1984
- Accession Number
- ADA163539
Entities
People
- Bruce B. De Mesquita
Organizations
- University of Rochester