Estimating Relationships in Simulation Models Using Regression: An Application to Military Retirement Costing,

Abstract

This article demonstrates a procedure for using regression analysis to develop estimating equations that simply and quickly predict the effects on system performance of changes in parametric values of complex interrelation-ships imbedded in a full mathematical simulation model. Though a analytic solution to the relationships may be possible, the time and other resources necessary to generate such a solution may exceed those available. The resulting estimating equations facilitate understanding of the system being simulated, enable users to more easily conduct sensitivity analysis and answer what-if questions, and assist the selling of the simulation results to potential users. The procedure includes criteria for selection of: variables to be analyzed, the sensitivity range, the value increments, and the functional form. The example utilized is a simulation model developed for estimating future military retirement costs. (Author)

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1985
Accession Number
ADA165186

Entities

People

  • Donald F. Smith Jr
  • George W. Thomas
  • Kenneth J. Euske

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Attrition
  • Business Administration
  • Computations
  • Computer Simulations
  • Data Analysis
  • Department Of Defense
  • Force Structure
  • Gain
  • Governments
  • Law
  • Losses
  • Mathematical Models
  • Models
  • Regression Analysis
  • Security
  • Simulations
  • United States

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Military Mobilization and Reserve Forces Studies.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.