Loss Rate Estimation in Marine Corps Officer Manpower Models.

Abstract

Predicting officer attrition is a major difficulty in the Planning, Programming, and Budgeting Process. The Marine Corps has historically used aggregated estimates for attrition rates. The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate the application of the James-Stein and other shrinkage type parameter estimation schemes for the purpose of generating more stable manpower loss rates. It has been illustrated within this project that improvement can be attained by application of the James-Stein and Mimimax shrinkage methods rather than the more natural Maximum Likelihood estimation process. The shrinkage schemes employed herein offer powerful and useful methods for generating attrition rates. Keywords: Shrinkage Estimator; Attrition Rates; James Stein Estimators; Manpower Processes; Officer rate generator; Minimax.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 1985
Accession Number
ADA166397

Entities

People

  • Dewey D. Tucker

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Active Duty
  • Artillery
  • Attrition
  • Data Analysis
  • Databases
  • Losses
  • Manpower
  • Maximum Likelihood Estimation
  • Numbers
  • Operations Research
  • Personnel Management
  • Probability
  • Random Variables
  • Security
  • Two Dimensional
  • Warfare
  • Warrant Officers

Readers

  • Approximation Theory.
  • Naval Personnel Management
  • Operations Research