A Comparison of Forecasted Provisioning Requirements versus Experienced Demand,
Abstract
This study assesses the effectiveness of the current Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) provisioning policy to provide a basis and direction for future provisioning analyses. The methodology used in the analysis successfully provided a quantitative measure of the correlation between actual demand versus Supply Support Request forecasted requirements at the commodity level. Estimates being received at each of the DLA Supply Centers (DSCs) for provisioning items were far in excess of actual recorded usage. Two variables, units of issue requested and acquisition dollar value, were used to measure the difference between actual demands and the forecasted requirements. Results from these separate analyses produced differences in terms of raw percentages at the commodity level. However, each confirmed the same conclusion, that aggregate item forecasts from the Military Services are substantially greater than true item demands. When the follow-on requirements were included in the total provisioning forecast, the percentage increases were remarkably close; 13.3 percent for acquisition value and 12.8 percent for units of issue. Although these results do indicate that some type of policy change considering the unique characteristics of items be developed, it does not endorse a blanket policy of using the total requirements from the initial and follow-on SSRs. The acquisition dollar value of buying the follow-on SSR requirements would be in excess of 400 million dollars for the two-year period studied.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 1985
- Accession Number
- ADA166480
Entities
People
- Frank J. Pender
- Gary W. Arnett
Organizations
- Defense Logistics Agency